in Supplies of Key Fertilizer Could Threaten Food Supply and Raise Prices
WASHINGTON, March 27, 2011 — Global
production of phosphorus fertilizer could peak and decline later this century,
causing shortages and price spikes that jeopardize world food production, five
major scientific societies warned today. The crisis will come at a time when
Earth’s population may surge past 9 billion.
Rice, corn, wheat and other staple food crops require phosphorus, which along
with nitrogen and potassium, is one of the three key fertilizer substances that
sustain world food supply. Projections indicate that world population will rise
from 6.8 billion today to 8.9 billion in 2050.
Chemistry for a Sustainable Global Society warns not only about “peak
phosphorus” — an echo of the more familiar concerns about “peak oil” — but
raises red flags about the supply of other natural resources where monopolies or
political instability could cut off supplies or inflate prices. They include
rare earth elements (REEs) and precious metals like lithium, platinum and
palladium that are needed to produce computers, mobile phones, rechargeable
batteries, solar cells, fuel cells, medications, pollution control devices for
cars and other key products.
“It is a national security concern for many nations that a small group of
countries control the remaining stocks of many precious and vital resources,”
the white paper states. “Politically motivated national policies restricting
export of certain minerals are already being put into practice. Limited
availability and high prices of scarce natural resources will quickly start to
affect industries across many different sectors.”
report results from a four-day summit sponsored by the Chinese Chemical Society,
the German Chemical Society, the Chemical Society of Japan, the Royal Society of
Chemistry, and the American Chemical Society. Thirty international experts on
materials science participated in the event, which is part of an ongoing series
of summits being held by the societies to seek solutions to some of the world’s
most daunting challenges.
“The chemist has a mandate to counsel society on the possible solutions that can
be achieved through chemistry,” said Ryoji Noyori, Ph.D., who shared the 2001
Nobel Prize in Chemistry, in the report’s forward. Noyori is president of RIKEN,
a non-profit research institute supported by the Japanese government, and a
professor at Nagoya University. “It is to be hoped that our recommendations will
be widely disseminated among governments and societies throughout the world as
we strive together to achieve the ideal and sustainable international
Shortages of phosphorus in the soil are especially acute in Australia, the
world’s seventh largest wheat producer, and in sub-Sahara Africa, where
phosphorous content in the soil limits crop growth and millions of people
already face malnutrition and periodic famine. The report cites the likelihood
that resources of phosphate rock, mined to produce fertilizer, will be depleted
within the next 30-100 years. At present, no substitute exists for that natural
source of phosphorous fertilizer. Two-thirds of the world’s phosphorus resources
are in China, Morocco and the Western Sahara. Demand for phosphorus is already
soaring, with the price of diammonium phosphate fertilizer (which also contains
nitrogen) doubling in recent years.
Chemistry for a Sustainable Global Society calls for technological breakthroughs
to guarantee supplies of phosphorus for future generations. It expresses
optimism that chemistry can develop new materials that allow humanity to tap
vast new sources of phosphorus, including substances in rivers, oceans and soil,
and also to develop technology to extract phosphate from water.
The report also points out that shortages of other elements essential for modern
technology, from computers to hybrid cars, will occur unless similar efforts are
made to find replacements or improve the efficiency of extracting and using
existing materials. These materials include lithium, a component of batteries
and an ingredient in some pharmaceuticals, as well as platinum, used in fuel
cells and as catalysts — substances that improve the efficiency of large-scale
chemical manufacturing processes. Other elements in short supply include REEs —
a collection of elements that are essential for the production of computers,
hybrid-electric cars, military weapons and other high-tech products.
“Little public awareness exists about the uncertain supplies of these key
materials that we face today and the potential future shortages,” said Nancy B.
Jackson, Ph.D., president of the American Chemical Society, the world’s largest
scientific society. Jackson is with the Sandia National Laboratories in New
Mexico. “Secure, adequate supplies of these materials are essential for
production of food, medicines, computers and hundreds of other products. Coming
as it does during the International Year of Chemistry, the report demonstrates
how the world’s major scientific societies can collaborate in addressing great
global challenges. This is chemistry working for a better life.”
Chemistry for a Sustainable Global Society outlines five key areas in which
materials chemists, through collaboration with other scientists, industry and
policy makers, can seize exciting opportunities to address global challenges.
Materials chemistry will underpin many of the required solutions to some of the
most important energy and environmental problems in today’s society, including:
• A growing population and increasing living standards are increasing world
demand for energy. Demand may soon outstrip supply. Materials scientists will
help to develop new, sustainable energy conversion and storage technologies that
can meet future energy demands without increasing harmful emissions of CO2.
• Projections suggest that Earth’s climate may warm significantly in the next
100 years, largely as a result of CO2 emissions from human activity. Materials
scientists can help to reduce CO2 emissions by improving carbon capture and
storage (CCS) systems and developing novel ways of activating and using CO2 as a
raw material for fuels and chemical feedstocks rather than as waste.
• Almost 90 percent of world oil production goes to the production of fuel, with
the remainder used to make medicines, plastics and hundreds of other products.
Materials chemists can help to reduce global dependency on fossil fuels and
feedstocks by developing methods to efficiently obtain petroleum from
low-quality sources and by developing processes to efficiently and sustainably
utilize fossil-fuel alternatives.
• Supplies of scarce natural resources are dwindling at an alarming rate, and
shortages will hit within a generation. Materials chemistry can help to reduce,
replace and recycle the use of scarce natural resources in many applications, as
well as to develop alternative new materials based on earth-abundant elements.
• The pressures created by a growing world population are damaging the
environment. Materials chemists can use the Principles of Green Chemistry to
meet the world’s energy, material and water needs in ways that are non-harmful
and sustainable. New technologies can be developed to better monitor and remove
air, soil and water pollutants from the environment.
Funding for the symposium came from the National Natural Science Foundation of
China, the German Research Foundation, the Japan Society for the Promotion of
Science, the United Kingdom Engineering and Physical Sciences ResearchCouncil ,
and the U.S. National Science Foundation.
Full texts of the report are available from email@example.com.
Other comments on Chemistry for a Sustainable Global Society:
David Phillips, president, Royal Society of Chemistry:
“The focus on global warming sometimes blinds us to the other consequences of
increase in the world population and the depletion of other resources needed to
sustain and develop the advanced lifestyles we crave. This report warns us of
the fact that resources are finite, and in some instances are already in very
short supply, but also gives the positive message that chemists can and will
provide some of the solutions needed to move to a sustainable world."
Prof. Jiannian Yao, President of the Chinese Chemical Society
“Sustainable development is a strong voice of our time. It is also the mission
of chemists all over the world. This white paper summarizes the suggestions on
solving the global challenges in energy, environment and resources from a group
of prominent materials chemists. It does not only provide a perspective guidance
for chemists, but also point out a roadmap of sustainable developments for
publics. This year is the International Year of Chemistry. It is just timely and
necessary to release this white paper and I am sure it will largely increase the
public appreciation of chemical sciences.”
Professor Markus Antonietti, scientific committee member and leader of the
German CS3 delegation:
“This is one of the most important projects I was ever allowed to contribute to.
Addressing the very big tasks makes active scientists usually very skeptical,
but I was impressed by the highest quality, the very constructive working
atmosphere and the cohesiveness of values of all the experts. In spite of the
very different cultural backgrounds and societal value systems of the nations
involved, this is very special. It is indeed a global document, dealing with
global issues. However, the depletion of scarce resources, remediating the
pollution of air, water and soil, or using the earth’s sustainable energy, all
these are obviously topics where national, single-handed efforts are
meaningless. Contrary to the ‘Club of Rome’, this document is not only analyzing
the admittedly critical situation, it also offers positive proposals on how to
deal with the situation based on science and technology. This report shows that
we have chances to deal with this, and it will be chemistry that will move
global society out of this trap.”
The American Chemical Society is a non-profit organization chartered by the U.S.
Congress. With more than 163,000 members, ACS is the world’s largest scientific
society and a global leader in providing access to chemistry-related research
through its multiple databases, peer-reviewed journals and scientific
conferences. Its main offices are in Washington, D.C., and Columbus, Ohio.
American Chemical Society (ACS)
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